Wednesday, October 06, 2004

90% of the Casualties- A look at the Dick Cheney school of math

Cheney suggested that we all check out factcheck.com in a odd twist of fate he got the URL wrong and gave the word the link to a George Soros web page. The web page he wanted us to go to was factcheck.org. Thanks Cheney. That site has all types of facts on last nights debate. The fact that I was waiting for was there. What follows is the section on the 90% Casualties rate question raised last night. (Fact check.org also has a text in the side bar of the debate.)

90% of the Casualties

Cheney disputed Edwards's statement -- often repeated by Kerry -- that US forces have suffered "90% of the coalition casualties" in Iraq, saying that in fact Iraqi security forces "have taken almost 50 percent" of the casualties.

Both men have a point here, but Edwards is closer to the mark.

Edwards is correct counting only "coalition" forces -- those of the US, Britain and the other countries that took part in the invasion and occupation of Iraq. According to CNN.com, which keeps an updated list, 1,066 US service men and women had died from hostile action and other causes during the Iraq operation as of Oct. 5, of a total 1,205 for all coalition countries. That's just over 88% of the coalition deaths.

We know of no accurate count of deaths suffered by Iraqi security forces, but an estimate reported both by the Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post puts the figure at 750. Lumping those estimated Iraqi deaths with fatalities suffered by coalition forces produces a total of 1,955. Of that, the estimated Iraqi portion is 38% (not "almost 50%" as Cheney claimed) and the US total amounts to 55%

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